Recent decision The World Bank's allocation of a $350 million grant for the construction of the Rogun hydropower plant in Tajikistan raises serious questions in the environmental community. These questions become especially relevant in the light of the new analytical report reports Rivers Without Borders International Environmental Coalition, which points out the significant environmental risks of the project in its current configuration.
Scale of environmental risks
According to the analysis of the Rivers Without Borders Coalition, the construction of a dam of the maximum height (335 meters) will create unprecedented risks for the ecosystems of the Vakhsh River basin and the entire Amu Darya. The following aspects are of particular concern:
First of all, the creation of a reservoir of maximum volume will lead to a significant change in the natural flow regime of the river. This directly threatens the UNESCO World Heritage site "Tugai forests of the Tigrovaya Balka Reserve", which is home to rare species of flora and fauna, including endangered species of shovelnose sturgeon.
Moreover, changes in flow regimes can critically affect agricultural areas along the rivers, where about 7 million people live in four countries in the region - Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. Their well-being depends directly on the availability of water for irrigation.
Climate aspect
Paradoxically, a project positioned as a clean energy source can make a significant contribution to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. According to the report, emissions from the reservoir will increase the carbon footprint of Tajikistan's energy system by 60%. This casts doubt on claims that the project will contribute to the decarbonization of the region.
Alternative solutions
Most notably, the Rivers Without Borders coalition proposes alternative project development scenarios that could minimize environmental risks while maintaining economic benefits. In particular:
- Reducing the height of the dam by 70 meters would avoid the relocation of about 40,000 people;
- A combination of smaller-scale hydroelectric power with solar generation could provide a faster solution to the energy deficit (by 2030-2031 instead of 2036);
- Diversification of energy sources would increase the resilience of the energy system to climate change.
World Bank position
Despite these serious environmental concerns, on Dec. 17, the World Bank's approved a $350 million grant for the project. The Bank emphasizes that the project will improve access to electricity for 10 million people in Tajikistan and help export clean energy to neighboring countries.
Importantly, the bank promises "enhanced supervision measures" to ensure that the project meets international environmental standards. However, it remains unclear how these measures will offset the fundamental environmental risks associated with the scale of the project.
Conclusion
The Rogun HPP situation demonstrates a classic conflict between economic development and environmental sustainability. While Tajikistan's need for energy independence is obvious, ignoring environmental risks and alternative solutions could lead to long-term negative consequences for the entire region.
The fact that funding is allocated without detailed consideration of alternative project development scenarios proposed by environmentalists is particularly alarming. This decision could set a dangerous precedent where economic interests prevail over the environmental safety of an entire region.
This situation requires a more thorough and open discussion involving all stakeholders, including environmental organizations and representatives of countries that may be affected by the project in its current form.
Earlier, environmentalist Igor Nazarov shared his opinion on the environmental dangers of Rogun construction to the publication CentralAsia.news.
Photo: Construction of Rogun HPP, archive photo by the Press Service of the President of the Republic of Tajikistan
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